Vail Resorts Stock Is Down 54% Over Five Years and the Weather Just Got Worse
Vail Resorts Stock Is Down 54% Over Five Years and the Weather Just Got Worse
David BerenFri, March 27, 2026 at 7:48 PM UTC
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Steve Boice / Shutterstock.com (Steve Boice / Shutterstock.com)Quick Read -
Vail Resorts (MTN) reported Q2 FY2026 revenue of $1.08B, missing consensus by 1.9%, as Resort Reported EBITDA fell 8.3% to $421.3M due to the worst snowfall season in the Rockies in over 30 years, with Colorado terrain dropping to 57% open by late February and skier visits falling 13% year over year. CEO Rob Katz purchased nearly $5M in company stock following the earnings report and maintained the $2.22 quarterly dividend, signaling confidence in long-term cash generation despite slashing full-year Resort Reported EBITDA guidance to $745M-$775M from $842M-$898M.
Vail’s Epic Pass model, which now represents 75% of annual visitation and has grown 55% over five years, is absorbing weather shocks that would devastate traditional lift-ticket businesses, but net debt leverage at 3.1x trailing EBITDA and a dividend payout ratio above 100% create structural pressure if a second consecutive drought season occurs.
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The world's largest operator of ski resorts, Vail Resorts (NYSE:MTN), is navigating the worst snowfall season in the Rockies in over three decades, and the numbers show it. Q2 FY2026 revenue fell 4.7% year over year to $1.08 billion, missing the consensus estimate of $1.107 billion, while Resort Reported EBITDA dropped 8.3% to $421.3 million. Vail then slashed its full-year outlook, signaling the weather damage runs deep.
CEO Rob Katz did not soften the message. "This has been the most difficult weather environment in the Rockies we have ever seen," he said on the earnings call, noting snowfall came in 40% lower than fiscal 2012, the previous worst year on record. Colorado recorded its warmest winter on record, with February temperatures nine degrees warmer than average. During the peak holiday period, only 70% to 80% of terrain was open at Colorado and Utah resorts, and conditions deteriorated further in February, with Colorado terrain dropping to approximately 57% open by the end of the month. As a result, skier visits fell 13% year over year.
The revised FY2026 guidance: Resort Reported EBITDA was cut to $745 million to $775 million from $842 million to $898 million, and net income guidance dropped to $144 million to $190 million from $201 million to $276 million. Shares are near $130, down about 20% over the past year and roughly 54% over five years.
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Reddit's Verdict: How Low Can Vail Go?
Sentiment on r/stocks sits in neutral-to-bearish territory, with scores ranging from 8 (very bearish) to 48 (neutral) over the past week. User Girldad_4 framed the stock as a distressed value question: "Vail Resorts is famously having... issues. Their stock is down -50% in the last 5 years. Zero snow this year equals another bad financial year. Employee walkouts and strikes, lawsuits, and equipment breaking left and right." The post had accumulated 85 comments and a score of 66 by March 27.
$MTN. Vail resorts. How low can it go and could it ever be worth investing in again? by u/Girldad_4 in stocks
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Pass unit sales have declined for multiple consecutive periods, down 2% for the 2025-2026 season, though sales dollars rose 3% due to a stronger mix of higher-priced products. This divergence raises questions about whether the Epic Pass model can sustain unit growth, even as pricing power remains intact for now."
The quarterly dividend of $2.22 per share, with the payout ratio well above 100% given the revised guidance midpoint, is a structural tension that Reddit users are actively debating.
The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index has fallen to 55.5 in March 2026, its lowest reading of the year and a recessionary level that compounds weather-driven headwinds for a discretionary leisure business.
The Epic Pass Buffer and Katz's $5M Bet on Vail
The Epic Pass model is doing real work here. Pass holders now represent approximately 75% of annual visitation, a figure that has grown by 55% over the past five years, and advance commitments explain why lift revenue fell by only 2.9% despite skier visits dropping by 13%. The model absorbs weather shocks in a way traditional lift-ticket businesses cannot.
Katz backed that conviction with his own capital. He personally purchased nearly $5 million in company stock following the earnings report. Vail also maintained the $2.22 quarterly dividend, with payment scheduled for April 9, 2026, and management stated they "do not believe this year's cash flow decline is indicative of the long-term cash generation potential of the business." For next season, Vail is offering a 20% discount on Epic Pass products for skiers aged 13 to 30, representing roughly $220 in savings on the full Epic Pass, which now launches at $869. The initiative targets a younger demographic that lagged during recent price increases
The key variable is whether FY2027 snowpack normalizes. The resource efficiency transformation is on track to deliver $106 million in annualized savings, up from the original $100 million target. This provides a cost floor regardless of the weather, but with net debt leverage at 3.1x trailing EBITDA and the dividend payout stretched, a second consecutive drought season would force a harder conversation about capital allocation.
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