NBA playoff picture: All of the scenarios and stakes for postseason contenders down the stretch run
NBA playoff picture: All of the scenarios and stakes for postseason contenders down the stretch run
Ben RohrbachWed, March 25, 2026 at 5:32 PM UTC
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The NBA playoff picture will come into clearer view each day between now and the end of the regular season on April 12. In the meantime, we will provide detailed daily updates on the landscape, including magic numbers, remaining schedules and the stakes for every day's slate of games.
Jump to: Western Conference
In the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks and Cleveland Cavaliers, in some order, appear bound for the top four playoff seeds and home-court advantage in the opening round. The Pistons, who hold a five-game lead on the Celtics and Knicks, are almost certain to capture the East’s No. 1 seed, barring a complete meltdown in the absence of injured Cade Cunningham (collapsed lung).
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Who, exactly, those four teams will play in the opening round is entirely up for grabs, as just two wins separate the fifth seed from the 10th seed. The Toronto Raptors, Atlanta Hawks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic, Charlotte Hornets and Miami Heat are all jockeying for position down the stretch of a season that has surpassed 70 games.
Technically, the Milwaukee Bucks and Chicago Bulls are still alive for postseason contention, though they are locked in a different kind of race — one for lottery odds.
Playoff-bound, seeding to be determined1. Detroit Pistons
Record: 52-19 | Net rating: 8.0 (2nd)
Clinched playoff berth
Magic number for No. 1 seed: 6
Remaining schedule: ATL, NOP, @MIN, @OKC, TOR, MIN, @PHI, @ORL, MIL, @CHA, @IND
Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 4 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs.
Battling for guaranteed playoff spot2. Boston Celtics
Record: (47-24) | Net rating: 7.8 (3rd)
Magic number for No. 2 seed: 11
Remaining schedule: OKC, ATL, @CHA, @ATL, @MIA, @MIL, TOR, CHA, @NYK, NOP, ORL
Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
3. New York Knicks
Record: 48-25 | Net rating: 6.8 (5th)
Magic number for No. 3 seed: 8
Remaining schedule: @CHA, @OKC, @HOU, @MEM, CHI, @ATL, BOS, TOR, CHA
Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 8 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference semifinals.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
Record: 45-27 | Net rating: 4.3 (8th)
Magic number for No. 4 seed: 7
Remaining schedule: MIA, MIA, @UTA, @LAL, @GSW, IND, @MEM, ATL, @ATL, WAS
Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
5. Toronto Raptors
Record: 40-31 | Net rating: 2.0 (12th)
Magic number for No. 5 seed: 11
Remaining schedule: @LAC, NOP, ORL, @DET, SAC, @MEM, @BOS, MIA, MIA, @NYK, BKN
Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.
6. Atlanta Hawks
Record: 40-32 | Net rating: 1.7 (13th)
Magic number for No. 6 seed: 9
Remaining schedule: @DET, @BOS, SAC, BOS, @ORL, @BKN, NYK, @CLE, CLE, @MIA
Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed
Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason
What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.
7. Philadelphia 76ers
Record: 39-33 | Net rating: -0.8 (19th)
Magic number for No. 7 seed: 10
Remaining schedule: CHI, @CHA, @MIA, @WAS, MIN, DET, @SAS, @HOU, @IND, MIL
Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed
Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason
What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.
8. Orlando Magic
Record: 38-34 | Net rating: 0.7 (17th)
Magic number for No. 8 seed: Do not control own destiny
Remaining schedule: SAC, @TOR, PHX, ATL, @DAL, @NOP, DET, MIN, @CHI, @BOS
Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed
Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason
What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.
9. Charlotte Hornets
Record: 38-34 | Net rating: 4.7 (6th)
Magic number for No. 9 seed: 10
Remaining schedule: NYK, PHI, BOS, @BKN, PHX, IND, @MIN, @BOS, DET, @NYK
Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed
Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason
What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.
10. Miami Heat
Record: 38-34 | Net rating: 2.4 (11th)
Magic number for No. 10 seed: 3
Remaining schedule: @CLE, @CLE, @IND, PHI, BOS, WAS, @TOR, @TOR, @WAS, ATL
Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed
Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason
What’s at stake: The No. 5 or 6 seed and a guaranteed playoff berth.
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Still technically alive11. Milwaukee Bucks
Record: 29-42 | Net rating: -5.5 (25th)
12. Chicago Bulls
Record: 29-42 | Net rating: -4.3 (23rd)
What’s at stake: Whichever team finishes with a worse record will receive a 20.3% chance at a top-four pick and a 4.5% chance at the No. 1 pick. And whichever team finishes with a better record will get a 13.9% shot at top four and a 3% shot at No. 1.
However, if the Bucks do ultimately land the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery — or any selection higher than the New Orleans Pelicans — it will convey to the Hawks.
Wednesday’s games of consequence (all times Eastern) -
Hawks at Pistons, 7 p.m.
Bulls at 76ers, 7 p.m.
Thunder at Celtics, 7:30 p.m.
Heat at Cavaliers, 7:30 p.m.
Bucks at Blazers, 10 p.m.
Out West, the Oklahoma City Thunder and San Antonio Spurs are bound for the top two seeds, with OKC holding a considerable lead for the league’s No. 1 overall seed.
The Los Angeles Lakers, with their recent nine-game winning streak, moved in as heavy favorites to capture the conference’s No. 3 seed. Beyond them is anyone’s guess.
Zero losses separate the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves and Houston Rockets, who are all but guaranteed the West’s final three guaranteed playoff spots. Only one of those three teams will earn home-court advantage in the first round.
The conference’s play-in tournament field is also all but set. The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors appear headed for the Nos. 7 and 10 seeds, respectively. And the L.A. Clippers and Portland Trail Blazers will duke it out for the Nos. 8 and 9 seeds.
Playoff-bound, seeding to be determined1. Oklahoma City Thunder
Record: 57-15 | Net rating: 11.1 (1st)
Clinched playoff berth
Magic number for No. 1 seed: 8
Remaining schedule: @BOS, CHI, NYK, DET, LAL, UTA, @LAL, @LAC, @DEN, PHX
Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 2 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 1 seed and home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
2. San Antonio Spurs
Record: 54-18 | Net rating: 7.7 (4th)
Clinched playoff berth
Magic number for No. 2 seed: 2
Remaining schedule: @MEM, @MIL, CHI, @GSW, @LAC, @DEN, PHI, POR, DAL, DEN
Highest possible finish: No. 1 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 4 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 2 seed and home-court advantage in the Western Conference semifinals.
Battling for guaranteed playoff spot3. Los Angeles Lakers
Record: 46-26 | Net rating: 1.2 (14th)
Magic number for No. 3 seed: 8
Remaining schedule: @IND, BKN, WAS, CLE, @OKC, @DAL, OKC, @GSW, PHX, UTA
Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 8 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 3 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
4. Denver Nuggets
Record: 45-28 | Net rating: 4.4 (7th)
Magic number for No. 4 seed: 9
Remaining schedule: DAL, UTA, GSW, @UTA, SAS, POR, MEM, OKC, @SAS
Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 8 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Record: 44-28 | Net rating: 3.6 (10th)
Magic number for No. 5 seed: 10
Remaining schedule: HOU, DET, @DAL, @DET, @PHI, CHA, @IND, @ORL, @HOU, NOP
Highest possible finish: No. 2 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 9 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
6. Houston Rockets
Record: 43-28 | Net rating: 4.0 (9th)
Magic number for No. 6 seed: 7
Remaining schedule: @MIN, @MEM, @NOP, NYK, MIL, UTA, @GSW, @PHX, PHI, MIN, MIN
Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 4 seed and home-court advantage in the first round.
7. Phoenix Suns
Record: 40-33 | Net rating: 1.0 (15th)
Magic number for No. 7 seed: 7
Remaining schedule: UTA, @MEM, @ORL, @CHA, @CHI, HOU, DAL, @LAL, @OKC
Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 7 seed and home-court advantage against the No. 8 seed in their opening game of the play-in tournament.
8. Los Angeles Clippers
Record: 36-36 | Net rating: 1.0 (16th)
Magic number for No. 8 seed: 9
Remaining schedule: TOR, @IND, @MIL, POR, SAS, @SAC, DAL, OKC, @POR, GSW
Highest possible finish: No. 3 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.
9. Portland Trail Blazers -
Magic number for No. 9 seed: 9
Remaining schedule: MIL, DAL, WAS, @LAC, NOP, @DEN, @SAS, LAC, SAC
Highest possible finish: No. 5 seed
Lowest possible finish: No. 10 seed
What’s at stake: The No. 8 seed and two chances to secure a playoff berth.
10. Golden State Warriors -
Magic number for No. 10 seed: 3
Remaining schedule: @DAL, BKN, WAS, @DEN, SAS, CLE, HOU, SAC, LAL, @SAC, @LAC
Highest possible finish: No. 6 seed
Lowest possible finish: Out of the postseason
What’s at stake: The No. 10 seed and a berth in the play-in tournament.
Still technically alive12. Memphis Grizzlies
Record: 24-47 | Net rating: -3.8 (22nd)
What’s at stake:Lottery odds!
Wednesday’s games of consequence (all times Eastern) -
Lakers at Pacers, 7 p.m.
Thunder at Celtics, 7:30 p.m.
Spurs at Grizzlies, 8 p.m.MEM is eliminated from postseason contention with a loss or a GSW win
Rockets at Timberwolves, 9:30 p.m.
Mavericks at Nuggets, 10 p.m.
Nets at Warriors, 10 p.m.GSW is locked into the play-in tournament with a loss, a MEM loss and a HOU win
Bucks at Blazers, 10 p.m.
Raptors at Clippers, 10:30 p.m.
Source: “AOL Sports”
